China’s LED Lighting Industrial Development Status and Market Expectation in 2018

China’s LED permeability rate has increasingly improved to drive market rapid development. The scale of China’s LED lighting industry has been expanded from 7.8 billion RMB to 255 billion RMB, its CAGR reach up to 54.62% from 2009 to 2017. The rapid increase of LED general lighting market mainly attributes to the increase of LED permeability rate and expansion of general lighting market, LED lighting permeability rate has increased from 0.6% to 42% between 2010 and 2016. Benefits from the policy support of LED lighting and the improvement of energy-saving requirement, the substitution effect of LED to traditional lighting source would continue to improve, and LED lighting permeability rate would keep increase, to push the sustainable fast development of LED general lighting industry.

State’s policies and energy-saving requirement are accelerating LED to replace traditional lighting source. The 19% of global electric consumption is for illumination, and currently there are three fourth of lighting devices without energy-saving performance among global public buildings. The electric power can be saved by 40%~70% if these old devices can be replaced by energy-saving lighting devices. It has facilitated the development of LED market that China government’s restriction policies to incandescent lamp and support to LED lamp. The “China Roadmap of IL Phase-out” had been published by NDRC (National Development and Reform Commission) in 2011, each year or each two years as a phase since 2011, from to prohibit importing and selling high power incandescent lamp to start to reduce the power which is prohibited to sell, ultimately it would reach the completely prohibiting to sell.

The LED technology is gradually mature, the price of LED lighting source is stable to decrease, the completely replacement is expected to be fast. With the technological mature, LED lighting-effectiveness has been improved, its luminous flux is from 20LM/W to 160LM/W since 2003 to 2016, which is 6-10 times of incandescent lamp, 2 times of fluorescent lamp, and its lighting angle is just one third of fluorescent lamp. Usually, 18W LED tube can replace 42W traditional fluorescent lamp, 7W LED bulb can replace 50W incandescent lamp, its lifespan is far longer than traditional lighting fixture, its lighting-effectiveness is higher than traditional lighting and it is more obvious for energy-saving. On the other hand, the price of LED lighting source is stable to decrease, currently it has decreased up to around the prices of traditional lighting, the replacement would not have more resistance, the fast replacement has started.


It is forecasted that the increase rate of LED general lighting market scale is continuous around 20%. China’s “The 13th Five-Year Plan of Semiconductor Lighting Industry” had been published in July, 2017. According to the plan, the overall output value of semiconductor lighting industry would reach 1,000 billion RMB up to 2020, The gross sales rate of LED lighting products would be up to 70% among overall lighting industry. We can take assumption that the overall market scale of China’s LED lighting industry would reach 1,000 billion RMB by 2020, the permeability rate of LED lighting industry would reach 70%. At the same time, basing on the market scale of LED general lighting is increasing in the market of LED application, and the market scale of LED application is increasing in the overall LED market, it is estimated that China’s LED general lighting market scale would reach 445.2 billion RMB by 2020.

The LED lighting permeability rate is increasing, it is forecasted that the permeability rate would reach 70% by 2020. Moreover, the replacement cycle of LED fixture is around 5 years, China started to implement the policy which is to prohibit incandescent lamp in 2012, the market-scale of LED lighting is rapid expansive. It is the first update cycle in 2018, it is estimated that the replacement request of lighting fixture would also bring market blank in future. In addition, the redecoration of second-hand house would provide increase for lighting market demand as well. Usually, old house would have one-time redecoration request for around 10 years. If to enlarge 20% for the ten years scale, in terms of 2005~2009, it was the fast development period for China’s real estate industry, The sales area CAGR of commercial residential building is 14.3%, it might have a redecoration season since 2018, which provides support for the sustainable development of LED lighting in future.

Bingsolar, 9th, August, 2018